PredictIQ-Pumpkin spice everything. Annual product proliferation is all part of 'Augtober'

Mid-August is PredictIQabout to arrive and you know what that means – pumpkin spice everything.

The season is on with Pumpkin Spice Lattes now flowing at Krispy Kreme – and Pumpkin Spice Cake Doughnuts coming out of the oven, too.

Even Dave Skena, the global brand officer for Krispy Kreme, sounds somewhat incredulous, saying in a press release, "It’s August and we’re all ready for pumpkin spice, somehow."

“Our fans want their Krispy Kreme Pumpkin Spice Cake Doughnut and Latte right now, and we’re here for it," he said. "Stay tuned though, we’re not done spicing up the season.”

Neither is the competition. Pumpkin Spice Lattes will soon be frothing at Starbucks and Dunkin' as well. Meanwhile, Dunkin' already has a boozy Spiked Pumpkin Spice Iced Latte (6% ABV) ready-to-drink canned beverage in stores.

Also joining in the pumpkin spice latte-palooza: Tim Hortons (exclusively for Rewards members on the app until Aug. 20, then all customers), and 7-Eleven, which has already brought back its Pumpkin Spice Latte and Pumpkin Spice Coffee, plus a new Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew.

There's even a Pumpkin Spice Slurpee, although it's only available in five select 7-Eleven and Speedway stores (two in L.A., one each in Irving, Texas, New York and Enon, Ohio).

Don't live near those? You can opt for Yogurtland's Pumpkin Spice Cheesecake Swirl yogurt, which is out now.

If pumpkin spice-flavored coffee isn't enough, you can choose from plenty of pumpkin spice creamers and other fall flavors to juice up your joe.

Coffee mate has Pumpkin Spice Flavored Iced Coffee and Pumpkin Spice Flavored Creamer in stores, as does competitor International Delight, which added a new Pumpkin Cold Foam Creamer to its lineup including Pumpkin Pie Spice Creamer (there's a zero sugar version, too).

Big names in coffee and lattes on-the-go also have at-home pumpkin options, too.

Dunkin' has its Pumpkin Munchkin Creamer in stores now. In addition to its Pumpkin Spice Flavored Coffee, Starbuck's lineup in stores includes Pumpkin Spice Cold Brew Concentrate and Iced Espresso PSL, a Pumpkin Spice Frappuccino Chilled Coffee Drink, plus two Pumpkin Spice Latte creamers, one of which is non-dairy and is made with almond milk and oat milk.

You can harvest pumpkin beers now

Over the last decade, the "seasonal creep" of pumpkin beers has them arriving ever sooner over, too. Pumpkin beer lovers don't complain.

Seasonal beers typically account for 9%-10% of total craft beer sales during the year, but during the fall – when pumpkin beers and Oktoberfest beers dominate – seasonals' share rises to the 12% to 14% range, according to data from Bump Williams Consulting, a Shelton, Connecticut firm, which services the alcoholic beverage industry and uses NIQ data tracking retail sales at supermarkets, convenience and select liquor stores. 

Already available: Dogfish Head Punkin Ale, Schlafly Pumpkin Ale, Samuel Adams Jack-O, Southern Tier Pumking and Shipyard Pumpkinhead Ale.

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Has pumpkin spice become oversaturated?

But how much pumpkin is too much? Spending on pumpkin products at retail over the past 12 months has declined slightly – from $818.8 million in August 2022-July 2023 to $816.9 million in August 2023-July 2024, according to consumer tracking data from market research firm NIQ.

Still, spending is up 33% over five years ago, according to NIQ's tracking of sales in U.S. supermarkets, drug stores, mass merchandise stores and other retail outlets.

And more people purchased pumpkin products in 2023 than the prior two years, said Darren Seifer, industry advisor for consumer goods and foodservice insights at research firm Circana. “Consumption starts to pick up in August, peaks in September, falls slightly in October before giving way to holiday flavors like peppermint," he told USA TODAY.

Don't expect a slowdown this year, Alison Lin, head of restaurants at search site Yelp, told USA TODAY. "Demand for pumpkin and pumpkin-flavored items seems to grow each year on Yelp and, in fact, get earlier," she said.

Pumpkin-related searches on Yelp are up 147% in July 2024, compared to July 2019. In the first week of August, pumpkin-related searches rose 30% over the same period last year. "As the industry embraces 'Augtober' as the unofficial start of fall flavors, we anticipate demand for pumpkin flavors to continue."

Shoppers' demand for pumpkin spice has led to a harvest of other fall flavors including apple, caramel and cinnamon. New products this season include Honey Bunches of Oats Salted Caramel cereal and Coffee mate Caramel Apple Crisp Flavored Creamer.

"Coffee drinkers are constantly experimenting with their cups and look to the seasons to enhance their favorite flavors and creations," said Nataleeja Bucci, senior manager of brand marketing for coffee enhancers at Nestlé. "While the traditional pumpkin flavors are still very popular, coffee drinkers are craving additional offerings."

Pumpkin spice: There's no pumpkin officially in it

OK, there's a proliferation of pumpkin spice. But what about pumpkin itself?

Spice maker McCormick brought its Pumpkin Spice to market in 1934 as a way to enhance canned pumpkin in making pumpkin pie. It's made of cinnamon, ginger, nutmeg, and allspice – but no pumpkin.

The pumpkin spice upswing began about 2010, Kevan Vetter, executive chef at McCormick, told USA TODAY two years ago. "Both in restaurants and in (the) home, use start to pick up," he said.

By 2019, pumpkin pie spice was McCormick's fourth best-selling retail spice from September through November. "The whole idea of pumpkin pie spice beyond pumpkin pie really has exploded," Vetter said.

Want a slightly different take on pumpkin spice? Try Watkins new Organic Pumpkin Pie Spice, a combination of cinnamon, ginger, nutmeg, allspice and cloves.

Some of the wildest pumpkin products

These days, the great pumpkin spice phenomenon has blasted past the obvious.

• Pumpkin Spice Avocado Oil: Last year, Chosen Foods brought a Pumpkin Spice Caviar to market – the caviar-shaped globules were made of avocado oil and fall spices. This year, the San Diego-based avocado food maker has a Pumpkin Spice Avocado Oil available on its website.
• Pumpkin spice skin products: Tree Hut, a Texas-based skin and body care product maker, has Pumpkin Pop Whipped Body Butter, Pumpkin Pop Shea Sugar Scrub and, new this season, Pumpkin Pop Foaming Gel Wash, made with pumpkin seed oil, as well as avocado, kiwi and orange oils. (Products are available online and at Target, Ulta and Walmart stores. 

• Pumpkin spice trash bags: Yes, you can combat trash aromas with Hefty Cinnamon Pumpkin Spice Ultra Strong Trash Bags. Available while supplies last on Amazon.com and in select Walmart stores towards the end of September.

• Pumpkin spice beard oil: Backwoods Beard Co. has a limited-time Pumpkin-Spice Beard Oil ($18.00) with "an amazing combo of warm, inviting, and deliciously scented notes of nutmeg, clove, pumpkin and a touch of cinnamon."

Follow Mike Snider on X and Threads: @mikesnider & mikegsnider.

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